Bribie Island is a barrier island separating Pumicestone Passage from the Coral Sea. At its northern end the island spit is narrow and is experiencing ongoing shoreline recession due to natural coastal geomorphological processes. Currently, there is significant risk of overtopping and breakthrough of the spit and under future conditions the risk escalates due to increased wave climate, storm surge and/or sea level rise associated with climate change.

In partnership with the Sunshine Coast Regional Council, Aurecon (formerly Connell Wagner) have undertaken a risk analysis for the potential breakthrough of the spit at a number of locations. The systematic assessment of likely change in coastal processes (waves, tidal water levels, currents, sediment transport) in the Passage as a result of breach of the spit has provided the basis to assess the risk and identify priority actions. Key direct threats of a breach relate to the increased capacity for ocean conditions to propagate into the passage leading to increased tidal range and increased storm surge levels. The study also considered the effect of a breach on sea level rise impacts within the Passage.

The risk of increased tidal range (and tidal currents) was found to be the most likely and severe immediate threat associated with a breach in the Bribie Island spit. A variety of actions have been proposed, providing Sunshine Coast Regional Council with a range of adaptive management strategies to manage the threats in a coordinated and cooperative manner.